VALDOSTA — The overall national economic picture portrayed daily on nationwide cable TV media stations presents such a bleak forecast that one commentator recently resorted to defining the “D” word for depression. Forget about the “R” word for recession.

The virulent combination of escalating gasoline prices, inflationary price increases on everything from groceries to airline tickets, a multi-billion dollar war in Iraq and Afghanistan, thousands of job layoffs, the weakening U.S. dollar, the financial impacts of illegal immigration, skyrocketing healthcare costs and the relentless bad news about the national real estate market make a smelly glass of sour milk that local economists just aren’t drinking.

That’s because they say the Valdosta Metropolitan Services Area, if not immune to the negative impacts of the hefty list above, is certainly in a position to weather the worst and will evolve into the land of fresh milk and economic honey — and in fairly short order.

The Homebuilders Association of South Georgia’s associates council got a quick, detailed review at a Wednesday luncheon from two local economists who listed fact after fact to show why the Lowndes region is holding steady, not growing but not receding, despite the bleak national outlook.

Dr. Cliff Lipscomb, assistant professor of Economics at Valdosta State University, joined Brad Lofton, executive director of the Valdosta-Lowndes County Industrial Authority, as guest speakers at the meeting.

They shared statistics and data to explain to the attending group of about 50 guests why this area is poised to come out strong on the other side of the national economic storm. Even HBA President Bill Gaskins jumped into the fray.

“We are nowhere even close to suffering as bad as the rest of the nation,” Gaskins said. “We’re holding steady. We’re actually anticipating a little growth in the coming year. We just want to get the word out. It depends on a lot of different things.”

Gaskins quoted Multiple Listing Service stats provided by the Valdosta Board of Realtors to give an example.

In 2006, there were 1,311 sales in the Valdosta area, compared to 1,319 sales. In the first quarter of 2007, there were 258 home sales of which 64 were new homes. And in the first quarter of 2008, there were 248 sales and 56 were new homes.

“We’re not growing but we’re holding steady,” Gaskins said. “If you look at the numbers, we’re not in a serious decline here. We’re just really blessed to be living in South Georgia. The growth is finally coming in our direction.”

Gaskins noted how important the construction industry is to the local economy. He said 2006 data from the National Association of Home Builders shows that construction industry pumped $127 million into the local economy in 2006 and created 3,514 jobs.

“That’s why housing is such a thermometer for gauging the local economy,” Gaskins said. “We have held our own. The economy will come back. It is not as bad as it seems.”

Lipscomb quoted his prediction that somewhere between 785 to 1,093 residential building permits will be approved in Lowndes County by the end of the year.

“For this year in the county, if we come in between 800 and 900 residential building permits, we’d be in line to make the same numbers of 2007,” Lipscomb said.

As for the increasing costs to build new homes, Lipscomb asked the home builders why the cost of concrete had risen so sharply.